wcm.01.2026.95.108

Drought constrains agricultural sustainability and ecological viability, especially within arid environments where water resource availability is the fundamental restriction, in this study, we assessed the spatiotemporal variability of droughts and surface water in the Baghdad Governorate State, Iraq using a systematic approach integrating remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS), a comprehensive series of time-series aerial imagery (Missions 1–9) of the Landsat satellite covering a span of 55 years from 1970–2025 were analyzed at five-year intervals, two indices were employed: the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicative of agricultural stress and the Enhanced Water Index (EWI) used to demarcate Emerged Water Regions (EWR), the analyses demonstrate pronounced cycles of degradation and recovery within this ecosystem, a disastrous ‘drought’ period was found in 1980 with widespread collapse of vegetation vigor and dramatic contraction of the Tigris and its tributary dry canals, such extreme deficits were also found in 2000 and 2005, particularly impacting on the agricultural districts of Abu Ghraib and Al-Madain, hydrogenically speaking, 1995 and additionally 2020 were hydrological ‘optimums’ where emergent water bodies have directly supported a widespread rejuvenation of lush vegetation, worryingly perhaps, prediction for 2025 indicates a return to ‘Severe’ to ‘Extreme’ level of ‘drought’ as in the 1980 crisis, our results provide novel evidence for water managers about the liner dependence of the Baghdad ecosystem on the continuity of surface water relaying grave concerns about the cyclical aridity of the region.